Ohio Senate: Brown Decision Shifts Race Out of Solid
August 12, 2025 · 2:33 PM EDT
By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown plans to run against GOP Sen. Jon Husted in the 2026 Ohio Senate race, according to Jeremy Pelzer of Cleveland.com.
Brown’s entry would give Democrats their top potential recruit since Brown has been elected statewide five times in the Buckeye State. That’s good news for the party, which needs a net gain of four seats to reclaim control of the Senate next year. Recruiting Brown is an essential step in the Democratic path to the majority, since it helps expand a difficult Senate map. But it’s not a guarantee of success. Brown, 72, just lost re-election by nearly 4 points to Republican Bernie Moreno, and Donald Trump finished ahead of Kamala Harris by 11 points, proving that winning statewide in Ohio is difficult for any Democrat anymore.
According to Inside Elections’ Baseline, a typical statewide Republican has a 10-point advantage, 54-44 percent in Ohio. And Brown had a Vote-Above-Replacement score of 2 in 2024, meaning he outperformed a typical Democratic candidate by 2 points. In 2018, Brown’s VAR score was 9.3, but that was with a sizable spending advantage against a flawed GOP opponent when the statewide Baseline was a more narrow 8.5 points.
But with a recently former senator running, Republicans have to take the race seriously now and will have to spend time, money and energy defending the seat. We’re changing our Inside Elections rating to Lean Republican. Even though Brown just lost, the midterm environment will likely be better for Democrats overall, setting up a close contest.
The 2026 race is to fill the remainder of the term. Husted was appointed to the seat by GOP Gov. Mike DeWine when Sen. J.D. Vance became vice president. So the winner of this race will have to run again in 2028.
Husted, 57, hasn’t been elected statewide on his own since his 2014 re-election as Secretary of State, when he earned a 7.4 VAR against Democrat Nina Turner in what turned out to be a good Republican year in President Barack Obama’s second midterm. Husted was elected lieutenant governor on a ticket with DeWine in 2018 and 2022.
Axios previously reported that Brown was interviewing campaign managers.
For a party looking for a fresh face after their aging president was defeated for re-election, Democrats’ chances of winning a Senate majority depend on the quality and performance of older candidates. Brown is 72 years old. In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper is 68. And in Maine, Gov. Janet Mills, who has not announced a challenge to Sen. Susan Collins, is 77.