New Jersey and Virginia: Key Counties to Watch
November 4, 2025 · 10:48 AM EST
There are 154 counties and independent cities in New Jersey and Virginia, but which ones can tell us where Tuesday’s elections are headed?
As polls close tonight, Inside Elections has put together a preview of key counties to watch in New Jersey and Virginia. Alongside the analysis below, we’ve calculated county-level benchmarks in both states.
See benchmarks for every NJ+VA county in table form here.
These scores subtract a state’s Baseline from each county Baseline; Democrats have a 5-point advantage in Virginia and an 11.3-point edge in New Jersey. This represents a county’s partisan lean relative to the state — and approximates what margin a candidate would need in that county for the statewide race to be roughly tied under a uniform swing. (Notably, however, it does not account for turnout.)
Virginia
When Republicans swept all three of Virginia’s statewide elections in 2021, their biggest gains came in key suburbs across Northern Virginia and around Richmond. These college-educated communities resoundingly rejected Donald Trump, yet elected the GOP ticket led by gubernatorial nominee Glenn Youngkin.
Those same suburbs — places like Loudoun County in Northern Virginia — will be worth watching this year. Located just outside DC and home to many federal workers, Loudoun is Virginia’s third most populated county. It has long been a bellwether for the Old Dominion governorship, voting for all but three gubernatorial winners in the last half-century.
Youngkin’s win was one of those rare misses. He improved in Loudoun County by 9 points compared to Republican Ed Gillespie four years earlier, although Democrat Terry McAuliffe still carried it by 11 points. It’s easy to see how the ground shifted beneath Democrats’ feet: the party had been dragged down by President Joe Biden’s unpopularity, and the Old Dominion’s suburbs had become a frontline in the culture war over topics like critical race theory.
The political landscape surrounding this year’s matchup is very different — a key reason why Inside Elections rates the Virginia governor race as Lean Democratic, in favor of former Rep. Abigail Spanberger. This time, Republicans control the White House, and the debate in Virginia’s suburbs has shifted from social issues to the government shutdown.
Spanberger will almost certainly carry Loudoun County over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. So the important thing to watch will be the margin: Loudoun County was the first sign in 2024 that Kamala Harris was failing to meet her benchmarks, with her 16-point win landing much closer to Hillary Clinton’s 17-point finish than Biden’s decisive 25. Our calculations suggest Spanberger needs to win Loudoun County by around 13 points to carry the commonwealth.
Other counties and cities in Northern Virginia — including Alexandria, Arlington, and Falls Church — will be blue, but turnout and margins matter. Spanberger needs to win this trio by around 53 points, according to our calculations.
The winner might be more surprising in suburban Chesterfield County, located south of Richmond. Northam barely carried the county in 2017 before it flipped 5 points toward Youngkin four years later. Biden, who won it by 7 points, was the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Chesterfield County since Harry Truman in 1948, and Democrats now lead by 4 points in the Baseline average. Earle-Sears would need a 1-point victory in this county to win statewide. Notably, when Spanberger was elected to the House in 2018 and 2020, that version of Virginia’s 7th Congressional District contained three-quarters of Chesterfield County.
Hampton Roads is uniquely important for two reasons.
First, the southeast corner of the state contains several Naval bases. In many cities and counties throughout the region, at least 5 percent of employees work for the federal government. That dynamic is similar to the suburbs, but the difference is demographics: for instance, Virginia Beach is more affluent than the state overall but has a similar racial makeup and slightly lower college attainment rate.
The second reason is specific to the attorney general race. The campaign was turned on its head following the leak of violent text messages by the Democratic nominee, former state Del. Jay Jones, who now trails Spanberger at the top of the ticket by double digits in polls.
While Jones’ former district was situated in Norfolk, we’ll also be watching the city of Chesapeake (which swung from Northam+7 to Youngkin+6) and majority-Black Portsmouth. We’d also be remiss not to mention Northampton County, a true bellwether in the area that has aligned with the statewide winner in 12 out of the last 12 gubernatorial races.
Finally, watch deep-red rural counties in the west. These were a mixed bag for Youngkin in 2021: turnout was up 15 points compared to 2017 across much of the region — the largest increase anywhere in Virginia — but his margins still lagged behind Trump. Earle-Sears needs both high turnout and a strong margin in the most Republican-friendly part of the commonwealth.
According to exit polls, the 2021 Virginia electorate was substantially older, whiter, and more rural than in 2020. Compared with 2017, it also saw higher turnout among voters without a college degree. Youngkin improved on Trump’s 2020 performance among white voters — especially white women — and outperformed Gillespie’s 2017 results among younger voters and independents.
That makes one enclave especially interesting: Montgomery County, containing Radford, Christiansburg and Blacksburg (Virginia Tech). Already competitive, it voted Clinton-Biden-Harris yet flipped from McAuliffe to Youngkin. Per our calculations, Earle-Sears would need to carry Montgomery County by 2 points to win statewide.
New Jersey
In 2021, GOP state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli held Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy to just a 3-point victory statewide. Ciattarelli had some help from a GOP-friendly national environment, but his massive overperformance — 5.3 points ahead of a typical New Jersey Republican, according to our Vote Above Replacement metric — helps explain why he is once again the GOP nominee for governor.
But for Ciattarelli, pulling off a win against Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill will take more than fighting the headwinds of an unpopular Republican president. The GOP nominee must combine his 2021 coalition with the same groups that powered Trump’s gains in 2024: which is a tall order, considering Ciattarelli’s supporters tended to be whiter and highly educated, whereas Trump improved among nonwhite and blue-collar voters.
There are three counties which Murphy carried in 2017 against Republican Kim Guadagno yet lost in 2021 against Ciattarelli: Atlantic, Cumberland, and Gloucester. All are located in South Jersey.
These counties are more racially diverse than the state overall and have lower college attainment rates. They’re also highly competitive, with all three counties boasting an average Baseline margin within a single point — and all were Biden-to-Trump flips in 2024. To carry the Garden State outright, our calculations suggest Ciattarelli would need to win Atlantic, Cumberland, and Gloucester by around 12 points.
Most noteworthy of the trio is Cumberland County, where 18 percent of adults have a bachelor’s degree, 60 percent of residents are nonwhite, and the median household income is two-thirds of the statewide figure. In the June primary, Sherrill earned just 19.5 percent here, making Cumberland the only county where she finished below second place.
Passaic County is 43 percent Hispanic, the highest share of any county in the state. The county shifted 18 points toward Republicans between 2017 and 2021, narrowing from Murphy+22 to Murphy+4 — and swung 20 points at the presidential level, Biden+17 to Trump+3. In 2025, our calculations suggest that Ciattarelli would need to narrowly take Passaic County to win statewide.
Nearby Hudson County is also heavily Hispanic, but it has higher college attainment rates and is bluer than the less-urban Passaic County. According to early vote data, ballot returns in both counties are lagging behind the rest of the state; Passaic has become a local focal point ahead of Tuesday’s election, with New Jersey Republicans calling for federal monitors to oversee mail ballot handling in the county.
The most competitive county in North Jersey is Morris County. Although it flipped Trump-Biden-Trump in the past three presidential elections, the county shifted toward Republicans by only 3 points from 2017 to 2021, from Guadagno+8 to Ciattarelli+11 — much smaller than his statewide improvement of 11 points.
Morris County anchors New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, which is currently represented by Sherrill. It’s also home to Ciattarelli’s running mate, Morris County Sheriff Jim Gannon. According to Baseline, Ciattarelli would need to win it by 15 points to win statewide.
One trend to watch in Democratic-leaning counties during off-year elections is that turnout can drop steeply in diverse urban areas This was another factor behind Ciattarelli’s gains in 2021: he earned 15,000 more votes in Essex County than Guadagno and 11,000 more in Hudson County, while Murphy gained only 3000 in Essex and lost 200 votes in Hudson.
Bergen County, the state’s most populous, tightened from Murphy+15 in 2017 to Murphy+6 in 2021. It also shifted 13 points toward Trump — from Biden+16 to Harris+3 — compared to his 10-point improvement statewide. Per our calculations, Sherrill could narrowly lose this county and still hold on statewide.
Finally, pay attention to Ciattarelli’s showing in counties that generally favor Republicans. He performed well in these places last time, particularly Monmouth County and Ocean County (and especially the township of Lakewood). We estimate that Ciattarelli would need to win Monmouth County by 21 points and Ocean County by 42 points in order to take the state.