California House: Voters Enact New Map That Benefits Democrats
November 6, 2025 · 2:29 PM EST
Democrats fought back against Republican redistricting efforts in Texas and elsewhere by drawing a new map in California, but needed voters to sign off on the changes. The answer from voters was a resounding yes, as the measure approving the new map passed by a wide margin, 64-36 percent, on Tuesday.
The newly-drawn map gives Democrats an opportunity to gain between 3-5 seats in the Golden State, which is similar to the 3-5 seats Republicans could gain in Texas. But, overall, Republicans have more opportunities to draw more friendly districts in more states compared to Democrats. And every seat matters when Democrats need a net gain of just three seats for a majority.
We detailed the changes in the new map back on August 21, but now that the new lines have been codified, here’s updated analysis along with rating changes in 13 districts.
1st District. Doug LaMalfa, R. Harris 54%. The new 1st District now extends south along the Pacific Coast all the way to wine country, transforming it from a seat Trump won by 25 points to one Harris would have carried by 12 points. Audrey Denney, LaMalfa’s Democratic opponent in 2018 and 2020, is already running here; state Sen. Mike McGuire could run as well. Either way, LaMalfa’s days in Congress are numbered. Move from Solid Republican to Solid Democratic.
3rd District. Kevin Kiley, R/Ami Bera, D. Harris 53%. The 3rd now includes parts of Sacramento previously in the 6th and 7th Districts, changing it from a seat Trump won by 4 points to one Harris would have carried by 10 points. 6th District Rep. Ami Bera, a Democrat, has already said he’ll run here next year; the new district contains 37 percent of his current constituency. That could set up a member-vs.-member clash, but Kiley might also switch to the 6th District, which now contains his home and 34 percent of his current constituents. Or he could take his chances running in the 5th District, currently held by GOP Rep. Tom McClintock. Move from Likely Republican to Solid Democratic.
6th District. Open; Ami Bera, D, running in 3rd District. Harris 53%. Bera’s shift to the 3rd creates an open seat in a district that is less Democratic under the new map. The new 6th would have voted for Harris by 8 points, down from 14 points under the old lines. But it would have been closer in several 2022 statewide races, voting for Gov. Gavin Newsom by just 1 point that year and for GOP controller candidate Lanhee Chen by 4 points. Former Democratic state Sen. Richard Pan is running here after briefly running in the 3rd District; he could be joined by state Sen. Angelique Ashby and Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho. 3rd District Rep. Kevin Kiley could run here, and this is the rare district that looks slightly better for the GOP on the new map, especially as an open seat. Move from Solid Democratic to Likely Democratic.
9th District. Josh Harder, D. Harris 54%. Harder is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the new map, as his 9th District is reconfigured into a Harris +12 seat after previously voting for Trump by 2 points at the top of the ticket. Plus, former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln is poised to jump from a rematch in this district to the 13th, leaving Harder without a top-tier opponent. Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic.
13th District. Adam Gray, D. Harris 46%. Gray flipped the 13th even as Trump carried it by 5 points at the top of the ticket. The new 13th would have voted for Harris by 1 point. That’s good news for Gray, but a race against former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, who is a more credible candidate than any of the three Republicans running before the new lines, will be competitive. Move from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic.
22nd District. David Valadao, R. Trump 50%. Even after redrawing the map, Valadao’s district remains relatively Trump-friendly, and would have backed Trump by 2 points, 50-48 percent. That’s slightly reduced from Trump’s 6-point advantage under the old lines, but Valadao is a tough out for Democrats, who are still contending with a primary between local school board trustee Randy Villegas and state Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains. Move from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican.
27th District. George Whitesides, D. Harris 53%. Whitesides’ path to a second term gets much easier under the new map, which turns his Harris +4 seat into one the vice president would have won by 10 points. That puts the former space company CEO in a strong position against Santa Clarita Councilman Jason Gibbs. Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic.
40th District. Young Kim, R/Ken Calvert, R. Trump 55%. Kim’s mildly competitive Orange County district was essentially dismantled, with the new 40th containing her base in the Orange County hills but also part of Riverside County from Calvert’s old district. That set the two on a collision course in a seat Trump would have carried by 12 points. Hours after Calvert announced he would run in the new 40th, Kim announced a $3.25 million ad buy for the primary. 48th District Rep. Darrell Issa could also join the fray; the San Diego Republican currently represents 15 percent of the new district. Move from Lean Republican to Solid Republican.
41st District. Open: Ken Calvert, R. Harris 56%. The new 41st is an east LA district that has no overlap with the old 41st. Democratic strategists expect Rep. Linda Sanchez, who currently represents half of the new district, to run here, opening up her 38th District. Former Rep. Hilda Solis has already filed to run. Move from Lean Republican to Solid Democratic.
45th District. Derek Tran, D. Harris 51%. Tran gets a light boost as the 45th goes from a Harris +1.5 seat to a Harris +4 seat, but will still face a competitive re-election. Westminster Mayor Charlie Nguyen and former Cerritos Mayor Chuong Vo are running as Republicans. Move from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic.
47th District. Dave Min, D. Harris 53%. Min’s life will get easier now that the new 47th would have voted for Harris by 10 points rather than 4 points. Move from Tilt Democratic to Likely Democratic.
48th District. Darrell Issa, R. Harris 50%. After two cycles of uncompetitive races, Issa finds himself at the center of the House battlefield — if he decides to run in the significantly redrawn district. The new 48th would have voted for Harris by 3 points, compared to the old district’s 15-point margin for Trump. Democrats will have to sort through a primary field that includes San Diego Councilwoman Marni Von Wilpert, 2020 nominee Ammar Campa-Najjar, and a few candidates who were previously running against Ken Calvert. This race will be competitive and expensive. Move from Solid Republican to Toss-up.
49th District. Mike Levin, D. Harris 55%. Long at the edge of the battlefield, Levin’s district is shored up considerably and would have voted for Harris by 12 points. Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic.