A Detailed Analysis of Texas’ New Congressional Map
August 27, 2025 · 10:57 AM EDT
Fearful of losing their majority in the House of Representatives, Republicans have embarked on a multi-state offensive to redraw congressional maps in their favor. This month, they won the first, and arguably biggest, battle of that campaign: The state legislature passed (and Gov. Greg Abbott will soon sign into law) a new Texas congressional map that will probably deliver at least three, and possibly as many as five, additional House seats to Republicans.
Unlike in California, this new map doesn’t need voter approval in order to take effect; it is now the law of the land, although voting-rights advocates have already filed a lawsuit against it alleging it violates the Voting Rights Act and the U.S. Constitution. As a result, Inside Elections is changing our ratings in five Texas House races, all in Republicans’ favor.
Overview of the New Map
The Lone Star State’s now-former congressional map was drawn by Republicans to help elect Republicans. After Democrats made gains in the state in 2018, Republicans in 2021 drew a map that sought to protect Republican incumbents against what was then seen as a rising cerulean tide. According to Inside Elections’ Baseline, our measure of the baseline partisanship of states and congressional districts, the map used in 2022 and 2024 had 24 districts that were R+5 or redder. Only 13 districts were D+5 or bluer, and one district was between R+5 and D+5.
The new map takes this imbalance even further. Under the new lines, 27 districts are R+5 or redder, nine districts are D+5 or bluer, and two districts are in between.
Another way to measure a gerrymander is a statistic called “efficiency gap,” or the difference between how many votes a map “wastes” for one party versus the other. (For our purposes, any vote cast for the losing party in a district, or cast for the winning party after it already won a majority, is wasted.) Based on the results of the 2024 presidential election, Texas’s old map had an efficiency gap of R+13 — already a hefty Republican bias. But the new map has an even more extreme efficiency gap of R+20. (For comparison, the proposed California map drawn by Democrats has an efficiency gap of D+20.)
District By District: North Texas
The main way that Texas’s new congressional map squeezes Democrats is by dismantling solid blue districts in three of the state’s major metropolitan areas, starting with Dallas/Fort Worth. The 32nd District, currently represented by Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson, was previously a compact, Dallas-based seat with a Baseline of D+22. Now, it stretches from the Dallas suburbs deep into conservative East Texas, giving it a Baseline of R+17. Accordingly, we are changing our rating in this seat from Solid Democratic to Solid Republican.
Such a golden pickup opportunity is likely to entice several ambitious Republicans. Pastor Ryan Binkley, who ran a quixotic campaign for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, has already announced he’s running here, and he’s capable of self-funding. State Rep. Katrina Pierson, who rose to prominence as Donald Trump’s spokeswoman during the 2016 election, has also been mentioned as a potential candidate.
For her part, Johnson sounds likely to seek reelection elsewhere, telling WFAA that she could run in the reconfigured 33rd District, which remains centered on Dallas and Solid Democratic (a Baseline of D+41). The 33rd is currently represented by Democratic Rep. Marc Veasey, but his home base of Fort Worth is no longer part of the district, having been farmed off to Republican Rep. Roger Williams’ 25th District. Johnson also floated the idea of running in Republican Rep. Beth Van Duyne’s 24th District, although, with a new Baseline of R+21, that seat remains Solid Republican.
Other districts in North Texas did not see major changes to their partisan leans. All are currently rated Solid Republican, except Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s 30th District, which is rated Solid Democratic.
District By District: Greater Houston
The Houston area goes from having four Solid Democratic seats to three under the new plan. The odd district out here is Rep. Al Green’s 9th District, which goes from a Baseline of D+48 all the way to R+11, the biggest shift of any district. It does this by ceding thousands of Democratic voters to the adjacent 18th District, which goes from D+39 to D+61, and picking up conservative exurbs from Republican Rep. Brian Babin’s 36th District.
As a result, we are changing our rating in the 9th District from Solid Democratic to Solid Republican. State Rep. Briscoe Cain has already filed to run here; he would likely join the Freedom Caucus if elected. Green himself has all but ruled out running here, since very few of his current constituents live in the new 9th District; instead, he has suggested he will run for re-election in the 18th, where 65 percent of his current constituents live and which is Solid Democratic. The 18th is currently vacant after the death of former Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner in March, but a special election to fill it will be held on November 4 (under the old district lines). So the 18th could see an incumbent-on-incumbent primary next year.
Reps. Lizzie Fletcher and Sylvia Garcia are the two Houston Democrats who got off relatively easy from this round of redistricting; their 7th and 29th districts both got a little bluer and remain Solid Democratic. Every other district in this region is Solid Republican.
District By District: Central Texas
The third dark-blue seat this map dismantles is the 35th District, previously a D+40 seat that ran between Austin and San Antonio. The new 35th District, though, consists solely of the eastern and southeastern exurbs of San Antonio and has a Baseline of R+7. The new version of this district would have voted for Republicans in every statewide election since at least 2016, but not by wide margins; President Donald Trump would have carried this seat by 10 percentage points in 2024 and only 2 points in 2020. It’s possible that Democrats could get over the hump here, though probably only in a blue wave election. We are therefore changing our rating for this seat from Solid Democratic to Likely Republican.
However, the 35th District’s current congressman, Rep. Greg Casar, will not be the Democrat to try defending this seat. His political base of Austin is no longer anywhere near the district, and he has already said he will run for re-election in the 37th District, which is Solid Democratic with a new Baseline of D+60. The 37th's current solon, Rep. Lloyd Doggett, has said he will not run for re-election unless this new map is overturned in court.
Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro, though, is staying put in his San Antonio-based 20th District, which remains Solid Democratic under this map. Meanwhile, Republicans like Reps. August Pfluger and Pete Sessions have gained some Democratic turf in metro Austin to make the math work, but they all remain in Solid Republican seats.
District By District: The Rio Grande Valley
Finally, Texas’s new congressional map makes smaller changes to two Democratic-held districts in the rapidly reddening Rio Grande Valley. The 34th District trades some historically Democratic turf around McAllen for historically Republican territory around Corpus Christi; as a result, its Baseline goes from D+16 to D+1. However, this Hispanic-majority district has been trending toward Republicans; after voting for Joe Biden by 3 points in 2020, it would have gone for Trump by 10 points in 2024. That has made Republicans more optimistic about their chances of beating this district’s Democratic incumbent, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez. To wit: Former Rep. Mayra Flores this week switched from running in the nearby 28th District to running here, in what would be her third consecutive campaign against Gonzalez.
However, going into 2026 and beyond, it’s an open question whether Republicans will hold onto the gains they’ve made with Latinos in recent years. Plus, Gonzalez has shown himself capable of outrunning the top of the ticket (his margin was 7 points better than Vice President Kamala Harris’ in 2024), and 2026 is likely to be a more Democratic-leaning year than 2024 was anyway. To us, that makes the new 34th District a Toss-up (it had been Tilt Democratic prior to the new lines).
Rep. Henry Cuellar’s 28th District also gets some nips and tucks, losing its slice of the San Antonio suburbs in favor of more of the Rio Grande Valley proper. This actually pushes its Baseline up from D+8 to D+16, but this may be misleading; the areas that the district gained are heavily Hispanic areas that were historically Democratic, but they have turned Republican in recent years. Based solely on the results of the 2024 presidential election, the new map takes Cuellar’s district from R+7 to R+10. That is hardly fatal, however, considering that Cuellar won re-election by 6 points in 2024. Still, it should make his 2026 campaign a bit more challenging, so we are moving our rating in the 28th District from Lean Democratic to Tilt Democratic. (This could yet change further based on developments in the federal bribery and conspiracy case against Cuellar; his trial was recently postponed to after the 2026 primary date.)
The new map makes little change to Texas’s other three border districts. Rep. Veronica Escobar’s 16th District remains Solid Democratic; Rep. Tony Gonzales’s 23rd District remains Solid Republican. Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz remains in a Likely Republican race in the 15th District, which is R+2 by Baseline thanks to its Democratic past but voted for Trump by 18 points in 2024.
The Bottom Line
If you assign all currently vacant seats to the party that last held them, Republicans have a 220-215 majority in the House. That means Democrats have to gain only three seats to take back control in the 2026 midterms. However, this new map in Texas makes it likely that Democrats will lose at least three seats of their own, meaning Democrats effectively now have to flip at least six Republican-held seats. (This task would be made much easier if California’s proposed new congressional map, a Democratic gerrymander, becomes law.)
Midterm elections are usually bad for the president’s party, so history is still on Democrats’ side in 2026. The president’s party has lost at least six House seats in 16 of the 20 midterm elections since World War II. Early indicators such as polls and special elections also suggest that 2026 is shaping up to be a Democratic-leaning year. In other words, Democrats still have a good shot to flip the House even with this new Texas map and without California’s help. But in case a blue wave does not materialize and Democrats’ gains are minimal, the seats they lose in Texas could be decisive.