The redistricting war continues with Florida. The potentially new congressional map drawn and proposed by Republicans could help the party gain as many as four additional seats. But those gains could be difficult in the current political environment that favors Democrats. We'll change appropriate race ratings when a new map is in place. But for now, here's how the potentially new districts compare to the current lines. 

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The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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Just a few months ago, Republican strategists expressed optimism about their party’s midterm fortunes. Despite President Donald Trump's mediocre job approval rating, gas prices were falling, the stock market was surging and tax refunds were imminent. Republicans felt like they had time to turn things around before November. But the president’s war with Iran has at least stalled that momentum, Election Day creeps closer and there’s considerable doubt that Republicans can reassemble the 2024 Trump coalition.

By this point in his first term Trump’s job rating had taken a modest turn for the…

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The two recently filled congressional seats, Georgia’s 14th and New Jersey’s 11th, are respectively Solid Republican and Solid Democratic, so flips were never on the table. But in both races — like in every other special House election this cycle — the Democrat overperformed and the Republican underperformed.

According to Inside Elections’ Baseline and Vote Above Replacement, Democrats have run 7.6…

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Florida’s 20th District. Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigned minutes before a House Ethics Committee hearing that could…

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Updated April 23, 11:51am

Virginia voters approved a new congressional map on Tuesday that will help Democrats flip as many as four GOP-held seats this fall. The referendum passed, 51.5-48.6 percent, roughly half of the margin that Kamala Harris posted against President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

Republican Reps. Rob Wittman, Jen Kiggans, John McGuire and Ben Cline saw their districts made significantly more favorable to Democrats or dismantled entirely. Republicans are still challenging the referendum in court, and a local judge enjoined the new map on Wednesday. But the ultimate authority on the matter, the state Supreme Court, has appeared hesitant to stop the new map from being used.

As a result, Inside Elections is making five ratings shifts in the Old Dominion. 

1st District (Rob Wittman, R) shifts from Lean Republican to Solid Democratic.
2nd District (Jen Kiggans, R) shifts from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic.
5th District (John McGuire, R) shifts from Solid Republican to Solid Democratic.
6th District (Ben Cline, R) shifts from Solid Republican to Lean Democratic.
7th District (Eugene Vindman, D) shifts from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic.

A full write-up of the changes to the Virginia map can be found in the April 16 issue.

Kiggans has said she will seek re-election to the 2nd District, though her path to victory is more difficult now. Cline gave a more cryptic answer, telling reporters he plans on “running in the current 6th District, where I currently live and have represented for eight years.” But that district does not exist on the new map, which placed Cline’s home in the neighboring 9th District. 

For his part, 9th District Rep. Morgan Griffith isn’t too worried about Cline running against him, telling Punchbowl, “it’s 81 percent my district.”

Vindman, as expected, said he would run in the new 1st District, opening up the 7th District. And at least one Democrat got a new primary challenger in the hours after the referendum passed, as former fighter pilot Jason Knapp switched from running in the 1st District to challenge Don Beyer in the new 8th District. 

Democrats need a net gain of three seats nationwide to win back the House majority this fall. After these ratings changes, Democrats are favored in 216 districts, Republicans are favored in 210 districts, and 9 districts are rated as toss-ups. The magic number for a majority is 218. 

The Virginia results give Democrats the potential edge in the mid-decade redistricting war that was started by the White House in order to try and preserve the GOP majority. But Democrats striking back with new maps in California and Virginia might have some Republican strategists second-guessing whether it was worth the effort. 

VA1 Wittman, R — Solid Democratic (from Lean Republican)
VA2 Kiggans, R — Tilt Democratic (from Toss-up)
VA3 Scott, D — Solid Democratic
VA4 McClellan, D — Solid Democratic
VA5 McGuire, R — Solid Democratic (from Solid Republican)
VA6 Cline, R — Lean Democratic (from Solid Republican)
VA7 Vindman, D — Solid Democratic (from Lean Democratic)
VA8 Beyer, D — Solid Democratic
VA9 Griffith, R — Solid Republican
VA10 Subramanyan, D — Solid Democratic
VA11 Walkinshaw, D — Solid Democratic

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The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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We're looking for someone who will help shape Inside Elections’ nonpartisan coverage of campaigns through reporting, writing, and analysis, contributing to the race ratings, updating the website and guiding the production process. There will also be opportunities to participate in television and radio interviews, and offer analysis to print reporters for attribution.

This is a full-time, salaried position based in Washington, D.C., but with a hybrid/remote work structure.

Qualifications and responsibilities include, but are not limited to the following:
 
Qualifications
-1-3 years experience writing and reporting about campaigns, elections, and/or politics
-Ability and desire to remain nonpartisan in all capacities
-Interpersonal skills, positive attitude, and willingness to work as part of a team
-Responsibility to balance the freedom of a flexible work schedule with the demands of news cycles
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-Bachelor’s Degree or equivalent, preferred
-Capability and experience to fulfill responsibilities listed

Responsibilities

Reporting/Analysis
-Cover federal/gubernatorial races in roughly half of the country.
-Write 1-2 long, analytical pieces per issue (or be responsible for writing shorter race updates for overview issues)
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Salary Range: $55,000-$65,000

Please send your resume and cover letter (no more than one page long), including a link to at least one story you’ve written and one way you could enhance Inside Elections’ coverage, to nathan@insideelections.com

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Nunn won one of the closest House races of 2022, flipping a top GOP target, and clinched re-election in 2024 thanks in part to a stronger-than-expected performance by Donald Trump at the top of the ticket.

This cycle, Iowa Democrats are feeling rejuvenated, with a…

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Democrats have the upper hand in the referendum, given the commonwealth’s partisan lean, but the outcome isn’t a foregone conclusion. That hasn’t stopped Democratic candidates from launching campaigns for districts that do not exist yet in anticipation…

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Georgia’s 14th District Special. Republican Clay Fuller won the special election to succeed GOP Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene 56-44 percent over Democrat Shawn Harris on Tuesday. Once Fuller is sworn in, Republicans will have a 219-214 advantage in the House. But Democrat Analilia Mejia is expected to win…

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The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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Former Rep. Mary Peltola’s decision to run for Senate rather than governor — a race she might have dominated wire to wire — puts this race in contention for Democrats, who now have a proven fundraiser who’s shown she can win an elusive state with a cross-partisan coalition.

GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, who fended off a well-funded challenger in 2020, is less of a household name than his headline-grabbing colleague Lisa Murkowski. That will have to change…

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Sen. Jon Husted, appointed by Gov. Mike DeWine following the election of JD Vance as vice president, has been thrust onto the biggest stage of his political career. A lifelong Ohioan who dreamed of becoming governor, Husted now must contend with a midterm environment and unpopular Republican president, while also introducing himself to voters who weren’t familiar with him as lieutenant governor or secretary…

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