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The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts here.

The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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Voters in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas officially kicked off the 2026 election cycle with a large and exciting slate of important primaries. The matchup is officially set in one of the marquee Senate races in the country (North Carolina) and a vulnerable incumbent is still alive in another (Texas). And there’s some clarity in what the next Congress could look like as some Texas Republicans won critical primaries in solidly GOP seats and parties got closer to choosing nominees in battleground races.

North Carolina
Senate. Open; Thom Tillis, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 51%. Amidst all of the chatter about the Texas Senate race on the outskirts of the fight for the majority, the nominees are officially set in a race at the core of the battleground. Former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley will face former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper in the open-seat race.

The race is currently rated as a Toss-up, but it’s a must-win for Democrats if they are going to gain the four seats necessary for a majority. If Democrats don’t win the Tar Heel State, they’ll need to win three of four more Republican states: Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas. Donald Trump finished ahead of Kamala Harris by 3 points in 2024, but it looks like Democrats have a slight advantage in an open seat in a swing state with a popular former statewide officeholder in a national political environment that favors Democrats. If Republicans hold North Carolina in November, it will be a very long night for Democrats.

1st District (Inland northeastern North Carolina) Don Davis, D. Trump 55%. It’s a rematch between Davis and retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout, who lost narrowly to the congressman in 2024. Buckhout (40 percent) beat out Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck (35 percent) and state Rep. Bobby Hanig (16 percent) in a primary that turned on geography. Now the former acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Cyber Policy will get another shot at Davis, with the additional advantage of new congressional lines that make the 1st District more favorable to Republicans. But Democrats are eager to litigate the same attacks they used against Buckhout in the 2024 race in a more favorable political environment. Tilt Republican.

4th District (Durham and Chapel Hill areas) Valerie Foushee, D, re-elected 72%. Harris 72%. Foushee declared victory in the Democratic primary that has not been officially called by the AP. She’s approximately 1,200 votes ahead of Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, but the race is within the 1 point threshold for a recount request. The race saw an influx of outside money in the final weeks, with progressive groups supporting Allam while pro-AI and pro-Israel donors backed Foushee. This primary is a potential warning sign for other Democratic incumbents around the country. Solid Democratic.

11th District (Western North Carolina) Chuck Edwards, R, re-elected 57%. Trump 54%. Edwards will face farmer Jamie Ager in the fall in a race Democrats are hoping to put on the map. Edwards still has some base problems, as seen by his relatively weak 70-30 percent win in the GOP primary over an unheralded opponent, but he won the nomination by a similar margin in 2024 before cruising in the general election that year. Ager will be his strongest opponent yet, and the region has shifted somewhat toward Democrats. Solid Republican.

Texas
Senate. John Cornyn (R), elected 2002 (55%), 2008 (65%), 2014 (62%), and 2020 (55%). Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton are headed to a May 26 runoff. Houston-area Rep. Wesley Hunt finished a distant third. The senator over-performed pre-election polling by a few points and may end up finishing slightly ahead of Paxton. That understates the challenge of the long-time incumbent growing his support from 42 percent to a majority in the runoff, but a first-place finish could be enough to convince President Donald Trump to endorse him. Cornyn is still very much in the race, but is probably an underdog. 

Democrats nominated state Rep. James Talarico (53 percent) over Rep. Jasmine Crockett (46 percent) without a runoff, allowing Democrats to get a head start on the general election. National Democrats are not eager to fight another war in Texas, where they’ve come up short in multiple expensive contests, but they will probably take a look based on Talarico’s nomination and the GOP fight. Likely Republican.

Governor. Greg Abbott (R), elected 2014 (59%), 2018 (56%), 2022 (55%). Abbott had no trouble securing a historic fourth nomination for governor. Democrats nominated state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, an Austin state legislator, attorney, and the daughter of longtime state party chairman Gilberto Hinojosa. She won the Democratic primary with 59 percent over former Rep. Chris Bell, but will be a heavy underdog in the general election. Abbott stockpiled $100 million in campaign cash through the end of last year and has never won by less than double digits. Solid Republican.

2nd District. Dan Crenshaw (R). Trump 61%. State Rep. Steve Toth defeated Crenshaw in the GOP primary, in a race where the margin (15 points) was more of a surprise than the ultimate outcome. Toth was endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz and the House Freedom Caucus while Crenshaw failed to earn President Trump’s support. But the result was also about redistricting. Even though Republicans drew the new map, the new lines included Toth’s state legislative district and removed some of Crenshaw’s Harris County base. Toth should win in November. Solid Republican.

8th District (North and northwestern exurbs of Houston) Morgan Luttrell, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 63%. Jessica Steinmann, a former staffer in the first Trump administration and Sen. Ted Cruz’s office, won the GOP race with 68 percent. She had support from Cruz, Abbott and got a late endorsement from Trump. Solid Republican.

9th District (Houston suburbs) Open; Al Green, D, running in the 18th District. Trump 59%. Former Harris County judge candidate Alex Mealer (36 percent) and state Rep. Briscoe Cain (31 percent) are headed for runoff in the GOP primary. Mealer got a late endorsement from Trump while Cain had support from Abbott in this suburban Houston seat. Former Texas Rep. Steve Stockman, who was convicted in 2018 of defrauding charitable donors and misusing campaign money before Trump commuted his prison sentence in 2020, was a distant third with 17 percent. Environmental advocate Leticia Gutierrez won the Democratic primary with 54 percent. Astronaut Terry Virts, who dropped down from the Senate race, placed third with 15 percent. Even though Trump won the district handily in 2024, Beto O’Rourke carried the seat by 2 points in the 2018 Senate race, fueling some optimism among Democrats that they could win if 2026 ends up being a great Democratic year. Solid Republican.

10th District. Michael McCaul, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 58%. Attorney Chris Gober, who counts among his former clients billionaire Elon Musk, narrowly avoided a runoff for the GOP nomination, finishing with 51 percent and well ahead of second-place candidate Ben Bius. Gober had every major endorsement including Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson, Abbott, Cruz and the Club for Growth. This is a mostly rural district stretching from Austin to outside Houston. Solid Republican. 

15th District (McAllen in the Rio Grande Valley to the outer San Antonio metro area) Monica De La Cruz, R. Trump 58%. Tejano music star Bobby Pulido won the Democratic nomination, well ahead of emergency room physician Ada Cuellar. That sets up a competitive race against De La Cruz in a seat Republicans drew to elect a Republican, but where Democrats believe they have a chance by winning back Hispanic voters in South Texas. Likely Republican.

18th District (Parts of central and northern Houston) Christian Menefee, D/Al Green, D. Haris 69%. It looks like the congressmen are headed for the May runoff in a race that hasn’t officially been called by the AP. Menefee was just elected in a special election in the old 18th District while Green has represented the 9th District for two decades. Green represents approximately two-thirds of the newly-drawn seat while Menefee represents about a quarter of it. But Menefee is coming off of the competitive special primary election, so he is fresh in voters’ minds. An incumbent is going to lose, but the unique circumstances mean it won’t fit neatly into any anti-incumbent narrative. Solid Democratic.

19th District (West Texas) Open; Jodey Arrington, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 75%. Lubbock businessman Tom Sell is advancing to the May GOP runoff but his opponent is not yet known. Sell received 40 percent and had the backing of billionaire Texas Tech University booster Cody Campbell. Meanwhile, it’s a close race for the second spot. Abraham Enriquez, the head of Bienvenido US who had Abbott’s support, is at 18.8 percent, while roofing CEO “Fat Matt” Smith is at 18.5 percent. Whoever eventually wins the GOP nomination will be a member of Congress. Solid Republican. 

21st District. Open; Chip Roy, R, running for Texas attorney general. Trump 60%. Former Texas Ranger/New York Yankee’s first baseman Mark Teixeira won the GOP primary with 61 percent. He was endorsed by Trump, Abbott, Johnson and the Club for Growth and spent at least $2.5 million of his own money. Trey Trainor gave up his chairmanship of the Federal Election Commission to finish third with 9 percent. The Republican-friendly district stretches west from the bustling Austin-San Antonio corridor into the rural Hill Country. Solid Republican.

22nd District. Open; Troy Nehls, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 58%. Unsurprisingly, former Fort Bend County constable Trever Nehls won the GOP nomination and is the heavy favorite to win the general election in this suburban Houston district. Nehls is the identical twin brother of outgoing GOP Rep. Troy Nehls and had President Trump’s endorsement. Solid Republican.

23rd District (San Antonio suburbs to El Paso suburbs) Tony Gonzales, R. Trump 57%. After an extremely close runoff in 2024, it looks like Gonzales and gun rights activist Brandon Herrera are headed for a runoff rematch this May. But this time there’s an extra level of drama after allegations that Gonzales had an affair with an aide, who ended up committing suicide by lighting herself on fire. Some Republicans on the Hill have called for Gonzales to resign or drop out of the race, while others had hoped primary voters would finish off the congressman. But he still has a chance to win and this issue isn’t going away for Republicans anytime soon. It’s not clear whether attorney Katy Padilla Stout will win the Democratic nomination without a runoff, but whoever is the nominee will suddenly get a lot of attention because Republicans will have a flawed nominee. Solid Republican, for now. 

28th District (Laredo and eastern San Antonio suburbs) Henry Cuellar, D. Trump 55%. Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina easily won the GOP primary with 74 percent, giving Republicans their top recruit in the race. He’ll face Cuellar, who won his Democratic primary with an underwhelming 58 percent on Tuesday. But President Trump complicated the race last year when he pardoned Cuellar, who was under indictment on corruption charges. Trump clearly thought Cuellar would respond by switching parties or doing something that would benefit Republicans, but that didn’t happen. Republicans are undeterred by that drama because they know the ethics charges weren’t enough to defeat him in the past and they are excited about Tijerina, a former Democrat. This is one of the most competitive races in the country. Tilt Democratic.

29th District (North Houston) Sylvia Garcia, D. Harris 60%. Garcia won renomination with 59 percent in a Democratic primary that was complicated by redistricting. While the Houston district has a Hispanic majority, the Black population almost doubled. Former state Rep. Jarvis Johnson finished second with 35 percent. Solid Democratic.

30th District (Southern Dallas) Open; Jasmine Crockett, D, ran for Senate. Harris 73%. Pastor Frederick Haynes III won the Democratic primary with 72 percent in the race to succeed Crockett. It’s one of the few remaining Democratic seats in Texas after the Republicans’ redraw. Solid Democratic. 

32nd District (Dallas Suburbs and east Texas) Open; Julie Johnson, D, not running in this district. Trump 58%. Air Force veteran Jace Yarbrough finished well ahead of the crowded field with 49 percent, but the race might still go to a runoff. Yarbrough had endorsements from Trump, Abbott, Speaker Johnson and the Freedom Caucus. Pastor and wealthy former presidential candidate Ryan Binkley is second with 22 percent. Solid Republican.

33rd District (Downtown Dallas) Julie Johnson, D, elected 2024 in a different district. Harris 65%. Former Rep. Collin Allred leads Rep. Johnson 45-34 percent. There was some confusion and controversy surrounding voting and counting votes in Dallas County, but the race is going to a May runoff. Allred spent most of last year running for the Senate but dropped out of that race (and into this race) when Crockett announced her run for the Senate. The runoff will not be friendly but ultimately, the seat will stay in Democratic hands in November. Solid Democratic. 

34th District (Eastern Rio Grande Valley) Vicente Gonzalez, D. Trump 55%. Army veteran and former federal prosecutor Eric Flores defeated former Rep. Mayra Flores 57-24 percent in the GOP primary. Even though Mayra Flores is a former member who was once highlighted by the national party, the GOP establishment is ready to turn the page after her second loss in 2024. Eric Flores looks poised to take on Gonzalez in one of the most competitive House races in the country. Trump finished ahead of Harris by 10 points, but it looks like Republicans’ hold on Hispanic voters in South Texas has slipped over the last year. Toss-up.

35th District (San Antonio suburbs) Open; Greg Casar, D, running in 37th District. Trump 55%. State Rep. John Lujan (33 percent) and Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz (27 percent) are headed to the May GOP runoff. Lujan was supported by Abbott while De La Cruz, who is the brother of Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz, got a late endorsement from Trump. Republicans redrew the district to elect a Republican but Democrats haven’t thrown in the towel and think the district’s large Hispanic population gives them an opportunity. Family therapist Maureen Galindo (29 percent) and police officer Johnny Garcia (27 percent) look to be headed to the May runoff. Likely Republican.

38th District (Houston Suburbs) Open; Wesley Hunt, R, running for Senate. Trump 60%. Mortgage broker John Bonck is well ahead of the rest of the GOP field with 47 percent, but that’s not enough to avoid a runoff. West Houston Airport president Shelly DeZevallos is a distant second with 19 percent. The Club for Growth spent $2.8 million for Bonck in the initial race. Solid Republican.

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The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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The Texas primary feels bigger than ever. While the November elections are still eight months away, more than a dozen consequential primaries in the Lone Star State are rapidly approaching.

At the top of the ticket, a longtime Senate incumbent, Republican John Cornyn, is struggling to win renomination in a primary dominated by questions about President Donald Trump’s influence and the broader evolution of the GOP. Democrats are also grappling with an identity crisis in their own primary for Senate.

But farther down the ballot, the competition is just as intense. The Trump-backed redrawing of the state’s…

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Florida’s 20th District. Luther Campbell became the latest Democrat…

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California’s 13th District. The Republican field…

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The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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The special election result in Tennessee’s 7th District is just the latest piece of evidence that, in spite of President Donald Trump’s reputation as a political savant, 2026 is beginning to look a lot like a traditional midterm. 

There's a perception that normal rules don't apply to Trump, who overperformed the polls and got elected twice with baggage that would end most political careers. But that's not really true, particularly when he's not on the ballot.

Even though Trump was the surprise winner in 2016, it’s been long enough to forget that 2018 was a normal midterm election. His job approval rating sunk to 44 percent over the course of his first two years in office, and Republicans got thumped, losing more than 40 House seats. 

That’s what happens to parties when they have an unpopular president in the White House. Yes, the GOP gained two Senate seats, but that was because of a favorable map and Democrats defending a disproportionate number of seats that cycle. 

Now, almost a year into Trump’s second term, it looks like we’re on the same course. 

The president’s job approval rating is slightly worse (about 41 percent, according to Nate Silver’s national average), and this year’s election results have been nothing but good news for Democrats. 

Whether it’s Democrats’ winning margins in the New Jersey, Virginia and California general elections last month or their losing margins in two House special elections in Florida this spring and Tennessee’s 7th District on Tuesday, the trend has been clear: Democrats are overperforming by double-digits compared with the 2024 presidential results. The victors were not surprising. It’s the margins that mattered.

When recent outcomes match up with historical trends, it’s up to the other party to demonstrate how this cycle is going to be an aberration. 

Speaker Mike Johnson clearly knows the history. He reportedly told House Republicans on Tuesday morning that the GOP would “defy history” next year by winning more seats and not losing the majority, according to Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman. 

History is clear. The president’s party has lost House seats in 20 of the past 22 midterm elections, and the fewest number of seats lost in those cycles was five (1986) and four (1962). House Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to flip the chamber next year.  

Some Republicans are hanging their hat on the two midterm outliers. 

In 2002, Republicans gained eight House seats and two Senate seats. According to two veteran GOP consultants, it was because the party had “strong candidates, clear messages, and we played offense.” But that ignores the fact that Gallup had President George W. Bush’s job approval rating at 68 percent when the midterms took place. That was down from 90 percent about a year earlier in the immediate aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks. And it’s nearly double where Gallup has Trump’s rating now (36 percent). So it’s difficult to see that scenario replaying itself in 2026. 

On Tuesday evening, another veteran Republican consultant mentioned 1998, when Democrats gained five House seats during President Bill Clinton’s second term. There was a broad perception back then that Speaker Newt Gingrich and his GOP majority went too far in investigating Clinton, leading Republicans today to draw comparisons with Democrats’ desire to investigate Trump. 

But that scenario doesn’t fit neatly either. Democrats aren’t in the majority now and don’t have any power to impeach or go too far in investigating the president. And, maybe more importantly, Clinton maintained a 66 percent job approval rating during the 1998 midterms, which helped Democrats defy historical midterm trends.

So what is the silver lining for the GOP, if any?

Republicans will point to a divided Democratic Party, a damaged Democratic brand and upcoming competitive primaries. 

But none of those things have been impediments to Democrats’ overperformances up to this point. We know from the Republican successes of 2010 and 2014 that a leaderless, messageless and divided party can still win general elections. The tea party was at war with the GOP establishment, and yet Republicans gained 63 House seats in President Barack Obama’s first midterm and 14 in his second. 

If Republicans can make the 2026 election a referendum on the Democratic Party, then they have a chance to hold their majorities. But the election is more likely to be a referendum on the current direction of the country, the state of the economy, the president and the party in power. That’s the default setting for midterm elections. 

Looking forward, Republicans are placing a lot of stock in the quality of their candidates. But some of their battle-tested incumbents aren’t running again (Arizona’s David Schweikert and Nebraska’s Don Bacon) or have won tough races but lost during Trump’s first midterm (California’s David Valadao). 

And there are emerging cracks within the GOP Caucus, from Georgia Rep. Marjoie Taylor Greene’s imminent departure to a potentially messy primary for Schweikert’s seat to bipartisan disagreement with Trump over the release of the Epstein files. Even in Tennessee’s 7th District, some Republicans have griped that Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps was dragged over the finish line in the primary by a late Trump endorsement and was not the first choice of local grassroots conservatives. They also referred to him as “Tennessee’s Fauci,” citing his role as a strategic planner in the state’s COVID-19 response. Republicans can’t afford any division or turnout apathy.

Halfway through the cycle, one of the most important midterm questions remains: Can Republicans turn out the Trump coalition when he’s not on the ballot? The results so far are not good for the GOP. They have almost a year to try and solve the problem and have a particularly engaged president who is dedicated to holding the majority to pass his agenda and avoid scrutiny and oversight. But Republicans have work to do.

The best news for Republicans is that the 2026 midterms are still 11 months away. There’s still time for the economy and Trump’s standing to improve, even though it’s unlikely to change dramatically for the better. 

Mid-decade redistricting, including two important Supreme Court decisions, will factor in which party wins the House majority. But at this point, even under the best-case scenario, a net Republican advantage through redistricting wouldn’t be enough to completely insulate the GOP majority in the current political climate. 

If we get to next fall and Republicans are spending millions of dollars defending districts like Tennessee’s 7th, that would mean the dam has broken and Democrats are riding a political wave.

But it’s important to remember that Democrats don’t need one to win the majority in 2026. 

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Connecticut Governor. Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont announced he’ll run for a third term. After losing the Democratic nomination in 2010, Lamont was finally…

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While it may take a few days, or even weeks, to properly digest the 2025 elections, the results are clear: Democrats won decisively. In races from New Jersey and Virginia to Georgia and California, there really wasn’t any ambiguity about who won and who lost. 

Even though votes are still being counted and final margins aren’t yet known, there are some initial takeaways. 

Here are a dozen things I think I think after what happened this week. 

Republicans have work to do. 
Yes, Democrats won the governorships of two Democratic-leaning states, but their margins of victory showed that Republicans could have a problem reassembling President Donald Trump’s coalition when he’s not on the ballot. 

Trump lost Virginia by 6 points a year ago, while Democratic former Rep. Abigail Spanberger is poised to win the governorship by 15 points. Trump held Vice President Kamala Harris to a 6-point win in New Jersey in 2024, while Rep. Mikie Sherrill could end up winning the gubernatorial race by a dozen points when all the votes are counted.

The House was in play before the 2025 elections, and it’s in play after the elections. 
On paper, Democrats need a net gain of three seats to flip the House next year. Functionally, that number should be higher because of Republicans’ overall advantage in mid-decade redistricting. 

But the passage of Proposition 50 in California, which green-lights a new Democratic-drawn map, coupled with Democrats’ strong overperformance in key races, shows the GOP majority remains at risk. 

Republicans still have the advantage to hold the Senate in 2026. 
Despite Democrats’ sweeping gains this year, it’s not immediately clear whether they’ll be able to win in Republican-leaning states such as Ohio, Iowa, Texas, or Alaska next year. They’d need to flip Senate seats in at least two of those states to get to 51 seats.  

Republicans’ best race was one where their candidate received 8 percent of the vote. 
GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa hemorrhaged support in the final days of the New York City mayoral contest, but Democrat Zohran Mamdani’s victory is the silver lining in an otherwise rough night for Republicans. 

Republicans will attempt to make the self-identifying democratic socialist the face of the national Democratic Party. Democrats can’t dismiss it because the party has no clear leader at the moment, and it fits into the narrative that Democratic politicians are too far to the left and too out of touch. But it’s also hard to believe that the 2026 midterm elections will be defined by who was the mayor of New York City. 

Parties don’t have to have a clear leader, a clear message or be popular in order to win.
Democrats this year showed that, similar to their own party in 2005 or Republicans in 2009, you don’t have to have a clear national leader or a clear message or even be popular to win elections. 

When voters are dissatisfied, they tend to focus on the party in power and are less bothered by the warts of the party out of power. This year’s elections were more of a repudiation of the status quo rather than an embrace of the Democratic Party. 

We’ve got to listen to the politicians and party officials. 
I’ve said it before, but it’s important to listen carefully to the politicians and party strategists, because what happened in the elections matters less than what the politicians think happened in the elections. 

Because what politicians think happened in the elections will drive future behavior. President Donald Trump’s initial response was to blame the results on the shutdown and his absence from the ballot. If he believes that, it could lead to him being more engaged to end the shutdown. But it also means Republicans could be in a lot of trouble next year because there’s no way to put his name on the ballot next year. 

The elections weren’t a strict referendum on Trump. 
That’s true, but the elections took place in an environment in which voters were primed for change because of the president’s poor job rating. Despite the supreme confidence displayed by Republicans in Washington, Tuesday’s results showed there’s some unrest with the current state of the country. 

To put it another way, if Trump had a positive job approval ratings or there were a Democratic president, these elections would have looked differently, at least on the margins, if not the results. 

Ballot measures are easier to pass when it’s a partisan race in a partisan state.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom and his fellow Democrats did a good job of framing the state’s redistricting measure as a partisan fight and a statement against Trump. Framing Proposition 50 as a nuanced lesson in redistricting would have been confusing and would have likely failed. 

Ballot measures often die in a cloud of confusion. But making it a straight partisan fight in a Democratic state was effective. 

Newsom will be part of the 2028 conversation. 
By taking on Trump and winning, Newsom has solidified his place as a future Democratic presidential contender. That doesn’t mean he’ll be the nominee, but he has the profile and infrastructure to make an impact. 

Spanberger will be part of the 2028 conversation. 
With an elevated profile as governor and as a woman with a national security background, Spanberger will be in the mix for a slot on the future Democratic ticket. Yes, I know, she hasn’t even been sworn in yet, but she doesn’t have to make any moves for a couple of years. 

Partisanship forgives a multitude of sins.
Democrat Jay Jones’ victory for Virginia attorney general of Virginia, in spite of him musing in 2022 texts about the death of a political opponent and his young children, showed that partisanship is a heck of a drug. Terrible acts committed by a political ally are easily forgiven while anything short of the death penalty is prescribed when an opponent does something wrong. 

Only 41 percent of Virginia voters said Jones’ texts were disqualifying, according to the exit polls, and Republican incumbent Jason Miyares received 47 percent of the vote. The bottom line is that we’re completely lost when it comes to what qualifies or disqualifies a candidate. 

Speaker Mike Johnson caught a break. 
No candidate received more than 50 percent in the special election in Texas’ 18th District to succeed the late Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner. Democrats Christian Menefee and Amanda Edwards will advance to a yet-to-be-scheduled runoff. 

That means Johnson avoids having to sideline two Democratic members-elect. For now, it’s just Adelita Grijalva of Arizona. It would have been even tougher to justify not swearing a Democrat in if there were two of them. 

House Republicans still have a vacancy of their own, with a special election in Tennessee’s 7th District scheduled for Dec. 2. 

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The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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One of the most competitive House races in the country has gotten a little more complicated with Republican Rep. David Schweikert announcing that he won’t seek re-election to Arizona’s 1st District. 

After winning by less than a point in 2022 and 4 points in 2024, Schweikert was near the top of Democratic target lists once again from his Scottsdale-area district that has a Republican Baseline advantage of just 1.5 points. 

While Donald Trump carried the seat by 3 points over Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race, Democrat Ruben Gallego finished ahead of his GOP opponent by 5 points in the Senate contest. District voters backed Democrat Mark Kelly by nearly 7 points in the 2022 Senate race, and Joe Biden bested Trump by a point in the 2020 presidential contest.

In other words, the district is fundamentally competitive.

Schweikert wasn’t the perfect candidate — even GOP allies wanted him to raise more money and he paid tens of thousands of dollars in fines over ethics violations  — but he absorbed millions of dollars in Democratic attacks over the years and still prevailed. Now that he’s running for governor, there’s more uncertainty in the race. We’re changing the Inside Elections rating from Tilt Republican to Toss-up, which is a category better for Democrats. 

Considering the seat just officially became open, the GOP race is still taking shape. Potential GOP candidates include state Reps. Matt Gress, Justin Wilmeth, Joseph Chaplik and Pam Carter. State Rep. Alex Kolodin is currently running for secretary of state, but could switch races. State Sens. Carine Werner and Shawnna Bolick have already declined to run. There’s also talk about Indy car driver Danica Patrick running, but that doesn’t appear likely at this stage, according to local sources.

It’s too early to know whether a candidate will secure Trump’s blessing. But one Arizona-based GOP strategist cautioned that a MAGA candidate wouldn’t line up well with voters in Scottsdale, who’ve never been excited about Trump, and that part of Schweikert’s success was not being viewed in the same vein as the president. 

While a competitive Republican primary is likely, Democrats already have a busy primary of their own. In the top tier of candidates are former state Rep. Amish Shah, who lost to Schweikert last year, former news anchor Marlene Galán-Woods, who lost the 2024 Democratic primary to Shah, and wealthy businessman Jonathan Treble. And there are more candidates running: Democratic National Committee member Mark Robert Gordon, media executive Rick McCartney and administrative law judge Brian Del Vecchio. 

Shah’s 2024 campaign didn’t inspire a ton of confidence from Democrats in Washington, especially his aversion to airing attack ads. But residual name identification could help him top a crowded primary field with a plurality of the vote once again.

After their nominees are chosen in August, both parties would then be set for a three-month sprint to the general election.

Schweikert is the twenty-ninth House member to announce they will not seek re-election to the chamber next year, including Iowa Republican Randy Feenstra, who is exploring a bid for governor, and Texas Democrat Lloyd Doggett, who says he'll retire if his state's new congressional map is upheld in court. Nineteen of them are Republicans, and 10 are Democrats. He’s also the tenth House Republican leaving to run for governor (counting Feenstra too).

Arizona's 1st District is the thirteenth House race rated a Toss-up by Inside Elections this cycle. Republicans are defending nine seats in the Toss-up category compared with four Democratic-held seats. 

Democrats need a net gain of three seats for a majority, but Republicans are helping their cause through an aggressive, mid-decade redistricting strategy pushed by the White House. Including newly redrawn seats from finalized maps in Texas and Missouri, and a minimum of 10 GOP seats in Ohio (which doesn’t yet have a new map), Republicans would be at 214 seats rated as Solid, Likely, Lean or Tilt Republican. That's just four short of a majority and doesn't count potential further redistricting advantages through redrawing districts in Ohio, Indiana, Kansas, North Carolina and Florida or any victories in Toss-up races 

But those calculations also don't take into account a potential voter backlash against the president and Republicans in power or potential GOP turnout problems when Trump isn’t on the ballot. And seats that currently favor Republicans could turn into more serious contests and move toward Democrats. 

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The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With a combination of reporting and data, Inside Elections brings valuable context to complex races. Go to InsideElections.com to subscribe to the bi-weekly newsletter through individual subscriptions and group packages that are tailored for association and corporate PACs.

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Iowa Senate. Republican Joni Ernst became the eighth senator to announce they will not seek re-election. 2nd District Rep. Ashley Hinson, who…

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The ongoing redistricting battle is a helpful reminder to the outsize role of governors not only in their own state’s affairs but on the national political scene as well. With a few exceptions, only states where one party has a “trifecta” of…

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